2012 NFC Championship Preview: San Francisco 49ers Vs. New York Giants

San Francisco 49ers Offense:
Before last week’s match against the New Orleans Saints, there was doubt that San Francisco would be able to put up the volume of points required to overcome the powerful Saints offense. Well, with the aid of Saints turnovers, the Niners surely managed.
Since beginning his career, Alex Smith has been the butt of many jokes and snide comments, notably how he appeared to be a bust and the size of his hands (they're small).
While he has yet to live up to being the No.1 overall pick, the redemption progress started a couple years ago and took a giant step forward last weekend as Smith orchestrated two touchdown drives in the final four minutes. Tight end Vernon Davis, who had an average year compared to the likes of studs Rob Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham, came up big and subdued the Saints with his seven-catch, 180-yard and two-touchdown performance. Pro-Bowler Frank Gore had a nice day (20 touches, 127 yards), but the run game uncharacteristically took a backseat to the air game. It was puzzling at times to see the Niners play out of their comfort zone, but a win is a win.
The crucial take away from the Divisional Round was that Smith can be counted on when the game gets close, late.
The defense he’ll face this time will be different in that New Orleans blitzed five or six guys sometimes, where New York can get pressure with just four rushers. Nonetheless, having Davis and Gore on top of their respective games will make it much easier for Smith to keep his team in it, and Indianapolis bound.
49ers Defense:

Starting up front is manimal Justin Smith, who likes to eat double-teams and QBs for breakfast, lunch and especially high-pressure playoff games.
He controls the left side of the offensive line, and if for some reason he is left against one blocker, then it can get ugly. Behind him rests the core of this defense: the linebackers, led by Patrick Willis (pictured left) and NaVorro Bowman, the best inside linebacker pairing the league has seen in years. In addition to Willis and Bowman, rookie pass-rushing savant Aldon Smith has wrecked offensive lines this season, recording 14 sacks during the regular season while only primarily playing on passing downs – he will be an absolute monster coming off the edge in the NFL. In the secondary lies a hard-hitting, aggressive unit featuring the rejuvenated Carlos Rogers (who was solid in Washington but nothing special), the instinctual Dashon Goldson, and Donte Whitner, who receivers and backs see as a bad, bad man.
As great as this defense is, Drew Brees still racked up 462 yards. For what that gaudy number is worth, it took Brees 63 attempts to do so. The previous week, Brees had four more yards with 20 fewer attempts. The turnovers caused and the run game’s stagnation pushed San Francisco over the edge. While Eli Manning was not as prolific as Brees was, he is on fire right now. A similar game plan should be employed to deter the Giants’ efforts.
49ers Special Teams:
As with just about any matchup, the Niners have an inherent advantage in the special teams department. There isn’t much more to be said about David Akers or Andy Lee. Though returner Ted Ginn Jr. may miss the game, second-year receiver Kyle Williams may be able to step in and effectively fill Ginn’s shoes.
New York Giants Offense:
The image of the Giants is that they can run the ball whenever they want, and that’s how they move the chains and compile points. Well, in 2011, that could not have been further from the truth.

Eli Manning (right) tossed a career high 4,933 yards in addition to 29 touchdowns. But don’t worry, he wouldn’t be Eli Manning without an average amount of interceptions – 16.
This postseason, though, Manning hastwo very strong performances, averaging a completion percentage over 67, notching 607 yards, six TDs and just one interception. With the exception of Tom Brady, he is the hottest quarterback still playing.
It doesn’t hurt to have two Pro-Bowl caliber receivers in Victor Cruz (five catches, 74 yards against the Packers) and Hakeem Nicks (seven catches, 165 yards, two touchdowns), both of whom can make a defense look more dumb than Mark Wahlberg saying he could have single-handedly stopped 9/11.
The run game can be solid, but during the season New York was dead last in rushing yards. Part of this, obviously, was that the team only won nine games and had to play from behind more than wanted. However, Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs can still come through when called upon, as they did in the Atlanta game.
More likely than not, the G-Men will have to work the pass game rather than rely on the ability of Bradshaw and Jacobs, which shouldn’t be a problem for a pass-heavy team. But in close-yardage situations they will need to play run. If they have problems then against the tough Niners defense, that can trickle down and affect the offense’s ability to convert third downs, red zone opportunities and manufacturing of points.
Giants Defense:
Like their opponent, New York has an aggressive, nasty defense that strikes fear into the hearts of their opponents. OK, that may have been a slight exaggeration, but they do have a very good squad.
The Giants secondary is not amazing by any means, but they have a solid group of players featuring Kenny Phillips, Antrel Rolle,

Moving closer to the line of scrimmage brings the Giants linebacking corps, which was a great trio the last time they won the Super Bowl. Now, they have two very good players in Michael Boley and Mathias Kiwanuka, with Chase Blackburn in the middle. Blackburn, who has a great story of how he was nearly a substitute teacher, is the weak-link in that group. Still, he will control the middle of the field, and his play will be critical to slow down the Niners offense.
The Giants would not be where they are without their beastly defensive line. In such a passing league, it is critical to be able to rush the opposing passer, and the Giants have a stocked arsenal to go to war with, most notably second-year phenom Jason Pierre-Paul. JPP just abused people this season, recording an insane 86 tackles as a defensive end and 16.5 sacks (Arizona’s Calais Campbell had 72 as the second most for a DE, but only eight sacks). Justin Tuck and Osi Umenyiora form a trio of pass rushers with Pierre-Paul that is easily the best in the league, and with Chris Canty and Linval Joseph inside, compose arguably the strongest 4-3 defensive line in the league. Their battle against San Francisco’s offensive line will be fascinating.
Giants Special Teams:
New York’s special teams squad isn’t particularly special (no pun intended). According to Football Outsiders, they are only 15th in the league. With no awesome returners to balance power, Giants’ special teams can’t even compare to San Francisco’s two All-Pro kickers.
Keys to the game:

Line dominance. It’s a cliché, but the team that can control the line of scrimmage will likely win, particularly since each team has a great front-seven. It will come down to how the Giants deal with Justin (right, about to sack Kyle Orton) and Aldon Smith, and whether San Francisco can deter Pierre-Paul and the other pass rushers.
High-performing secondaries. Manning is better than Smith is, yet Smith will be facing a weaker secondary than Manning will. Smith will need to take advantage of this mismatch to propel the Niners. Plus, as seen throughout this whole year, San Francisco has a play-making tight end no one can defend in Vernon Davis.
Turnovers and field position. San Francisco has the bestdifferential in the league (+28 in the regular season, +4 in the playoffs). The problem is that even though they can win the turnover margin, they may rely on forcing turnovers a little too much. They beat the Saints by four points. If one ball doesn’t go their way, they would probably be sitting home and watching the Saints host New York. Forcing turnovers creates good field position, which Alex Smith will need to limit how much he has to throw. New York is above average in winning the turnover margin (+6 in the regular season), and they will need to beat that to limit the power of Akers and Lee.
Prediction:
San Francisco showed they could win against a strong passing attack. With an awesome home field advantage, the Niners will slow down and frustrate Manning. Manning is more important to his offense than Alex Smith is. However this game does turn out, it should be a memorable matchup. The Niners win, 26-20.
Here's what the rest of the Neon Tommy Sports Staff expects:
Jeremy Bergman: 49ers 20, Giants 16
Aaron Fischman: 49ers 20, Giants 17
Jacob Freedman: 49ers 24, Giants 21
Danny Lee: 49ers 24, Giants 20
Ryan Nunez: Giants 31, 49ers 21
Sara Ramsey: 49ers 27, Giants 24
Kate Rooney: Giants 27, 49ers 20
James Santelli: 49ers 24, Giants 17
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